zimfinalpush
The much-publicised endorsement in March of Mugabe as the Zanu-PF party's Presidential candidate for next year's elections never happened. Newly leaked minutes of the critical party meeting indicate that no endorsement was made - and observers believe that whoever is the next President of Zimbabwe it will not be Robert Mugabe.
The minutes of the meeting, held between 1pm and 4.35pm on March 30, at Zanu-PF headquarters in Harare, have been leaked by one of the two major factions struggling for power within the party.
This faction is led by retired army supremo Solomon Mujuru, whose wife, Joyce, is one of Zimbabwe's two vice-presidents.
Opposing the Mujuru faction is one headed by Emmerson Mnangagwa and Patrick Chinamasa, who, together with Mugabe, let it be generally thought that Mugabe had been endorsed as the Zanu-PF candidate for the joint presidential and parliamentary elections to be held next year. I recorded that as a fact in my column on March 31.
In fact, as the leaked minutes now prove, no such decision was taken, The Mugabe faction tried to push it through at the meeting, but met stiffer opposition than they expected, especially from the powerful Youth League.
Observers believe that the Mnangagwa faction's plan was to enable the president, after being nominated and even elected, to then retire gracefully and - more important - safely, putting Emmerson Mnangagwa in his place as the new president.
But the Mujuru faction are having none of it. They point out that Mnangagwa is a highly unsuitable candidate for President. He isknown to have been heavily involved in the infamous Gukurahundi massacres, when 25,000 Ndebeles were killed. And he is hated by many in the party for his corrupt and brutal methods.
Mujuru himself, a formidable character who can boast the support of the army, is not personally interested in the presidency.
At one time it was thought that he would support his wife Joyce (right) in a bid for the top office. But it now appears that Simba Makoni, a former finance minister, is his choice. Makoni is a man with relatively clean hands - plus he is good-looking, charismatic, and highly popular within the party.
To win the struggle without an actual bloodbath, Mujuru needs to persuade Mugabe to abandon Mnangagwa, and accept the Mujuru choice of successor. To do this, Mujuru is working on a retirement plan for Mugabe which will leave him personally secure and immune from any prosecution. The stumbling block will be a matter of location. Mugabe wants to remain in Zimbabwe in retirement. Mujuru would like him out of the country. A compromise has to be reached.
With all this in mind, it is possible now to predict the future scenario for the Zimbabwe government:
* Presidential and Parliamentary elections will be delayed until 2010.
* President Mugabe will resign sooner rather than later, possibly as early as this autumn.
* The new leader of Zanu-PF, and de facto President of Zimbabwe, will be Simba Makoni, backed by the brooding Solomon Mujuru.
Remember, you read it here first.
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