03 March 2007
By Dumisani Muleya
PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe has upped the ante in his succession battle by intensifying attacks on Vice-President Joice Mujuru in Gweru last weekend, saying she has wrecked her chances of taking over from him. Zanu PF sources said Mugabe on Saturday raised the succession stakes after telling senior party leaders in the Midlands that Mujuru had ruined her prospects by associating herself with a dirty campaign to denigrate and stampede him out of power.
The sources said Mugabe told senior party leaders, who included politburo, central committee and provincial executive members, ahead of birthday celebrations at Mkoba stadium, the Mujuru faction was trying to damage his reputation and force him out by all sorts of means, including biographies.
Mujuru's rival, Emmerson Mnangagwa, was present at the briefing, but she was absent as it was officially claimed she was preparing for exams, while her husband arrived late for the celebrations. The Mujuru bloc is said to be furious over Mugabe's remarks.
Mugabe has accused former Zanu PF secretary-general Edgar Tekere and prominent publisher Ibbo Mandaza, of trying to use Tekere's controversial autobiography, Tekere -- A Lifetime of Struggle, to undermine him while in the process promoting Mujuru's presidential bid. He has also said Mujuru and her allies have "lost the plot" by trying to gain power through such politics of intrigue.
Mugabe seems to have been angered by the Mujuru group's move to thwart his 2010 election bid - now almost dead in the water --- and Tekere's attack on his liberation struggle credentials. The state media is trying hard to identify some silver lining to Mugabe's disastrous legacy. Furthermore, the president apparently resents growing internal pressure, largely from Mujuru's camp, for him to quit now or in March 2008.
Mugabe's indignation at the Mujuru camp is likely to pour fuel on the succession fires threatening to engulf the ruling party. The president has publicly admitted deep divisions in Zanu PF and warned his party would almost certainly disintegrate were he to leave now.
Analysts say this is a realistic assessment of the state of the party because Zanu PF could indeed break up along regional and ethnic fault lines after Mugabe. His remarks are also of course self-serving.
The weekend attack on Mujuru in Gweru followed Mugabe's assault on her last week in his birthday broadcast interview heavily censored by ZBC managers and state information gatekeepers who feared it would fuel Zanu PF infighting. They have been proved right.
The ruling party has two main factions, one led by retired army commander General Solomon Mujuru and the other by senior party official Mnangagwa, engaged in a power struggle over Mugabe's job.
Mujuru, Mnangagwa and Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono are widely seen as the frontrunners.
Observers say Mugabe is keeping Zanu PF factions at each other's throats-- a divide-and-rule strategy -- to hang onto power.
But sources said the Mnangagwa faction was thrilled by Mugabe's weekend attack on Mujuru which appeared to signal renewed confidence in them and reopened a window of opportunity for their leader who has suffered a series of defeats in the party and in general elections since 1999.
Sources said the Mnangagwa camp has held several meetings to assess the impact of Mugabe's remarks on the succession debate.
The Mujuru faction was said to have been shocked by Mugabe's latest outburst. They viewed the remarks, sources said, as a brutal kick in the teeth by the leader who openly backed their candidate in the run-up to the party's 2004 congress.
Although Mnangagwa had the support of the majority of provinces in 2004, he was defeated by Mujuru after Mugabe intervened on her side in the wake of the Tsholotsho incident. The Mnangagwa faction was accused of plotting to oust Mugabe after hosting a politically-charged prize-giving ceremony in Tsholotsho.
However, things now appear to have changed dramatically. Mugabe seems to have turned against Mujuru and is firing at will on their faction. His edited statements last week suggest a new succession plan might be on the table. As if to validate his claims of a plot to force him out, Zanu PF supporters were spotted at his birthday on Saturday displaying intriguing posters, one which read: "Succession politics, not ouster politics please!"
Despite mounting political pressure, the Mujuru faction has vowed to fight back with a vengeance. Senior leaders of the camp said this week they would work to recover lost ground. "We are going to fight back, no doubt about it, make no mistake," one leading faction member said. "The battle is on and it's far from over."
While the Mnangagwa group has lost a number of senior members who felt betrayed by their leader during the Tsholotsho saga, the Mujuru camp has also of late suffered a series of setbacks. Apart from Mugabe's damaging remarks about them, the faction's strategic member in government, former Finance minister Herbert Murerwa was recently fired from cabinet. In fact, the cabinet reshuffle in a number of ways weakened the Mujuru camp.
The removal of deputy Finance minister David Chapfika and his subsequent posting to Agriculture, for instance, left Treasury in the hands of Mujuru's rivals: Mnangagwa and Gono. New Finance minister Samuel Mumbengegwi is well-disposed towards Mnangagwa's camp, although he is more of a Mugabe loyalist.
Prior to all this, late last year former Agriculture permanent secretary Simon Pazvakavambwa, a staunch Mujuru ally, was booted out for insulting Gono.
Although Mnangagwa's faction did not benefit anything directly from this, the events represented setbacks for the Mujuru camp which had until last year seemed to be on an unstoppable march towards State House.
With the Mnangagwa faction heading towards recovery from the 2004 defeat, the explosive Zanu PF succession race is still on and wide open.
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